Buy now or wait?

No one can predict COE prices. But history shows how much they usually move in a few months.

If you wait

How far prices usually moved over 3 and 6 months, in the last 10 years. For example, Cat A is $132k today. In half of all 3-month stretches, it moved between −4% and +11%, which from today would be $127k–$147k.

Half of the time8 in 10 timesToday's price

Cat A$132,004 today

3 mths$127k–$147k−4% to +11%

6 mths$124k–$156k−6% to +18%

Cat B$131,901 today

3 mths$125k–$147k−6% to +11%

6 mths$122k–$156k−7% to +19%

Cat C$92,200 today

3 mths$88k–$100k−5% to +9%

6 mths$84k–$109k−9% to +19%

Cat D$10,778 today

3 mths$10k–$12k−9% to +10%

6 mths$10k–$12k−8% to +16%

Cat E$135,790 today

3 mths$130k–$151k−4% to +11%

6 mths$126k–$159k−7% to +17%

Most bars lean right because COE prices mostly rose over the last 10 years. That's the past, not a sign prices must keep rising.

How is this worked out?

We took every bidding round in the last 10 years (234 of them for Cat A) and compared its price with the price 3 months later (6 months for the second row). Sorting those moves from biggest drop to biggest rise, the solid bar covers the middle half and the pale bar the middle 8 in 10. The dollar range applies the middle half to today's price.

The bigger picture

Population growth vs supply

Population since 2018

+10%

5.64M → 6.21M

Car growth allowed since 2018

New cars only replace scrapped ones

Singapore population, millions

Before 2018Since 2018, with 0% car growth

Total population at mid-year. Bars start at 4.5M so the change is visible. The dotted 6.9M bar is the Government's planning figure for infrastructure, not a target; it expects the population to stay "significantly below" it by 2030. Sources: SingStat, population.gov.sg.

Feb 2018Car and motorcycle growth set to 0%, so a new COE only appears when another vehicle is scrapped. Goods vehicles and buses grow 0.25% a year. MOT
May 2023LTA starts moving COEs between categories and bringing some forward: 30,813 so far. MOT
Feb 2025Up to 20,000 extra COEs, added over several years. ST
Jan 2028The 0% growth rate runs until 31 Jan 2028. Watch for the review before then.
Each quarterLTA announces the next 3 months of COEs in late Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct. That's the main supply surprise.

The detail

Price and bidding since 2010

Average price each quarter, with bids per COE below. When bidding runs above its usual level, prices tend to climb.

Dashed lines: 1 0% car growth · 2 COEs reshuffled · 3 +20k COEs. The 2020 gap is when bidding was suspended during the circuit breaker.

This quarter

COEs for Nov 2026 to Jan 2027

7,134

+0.0% vs the quarter before

About the same supply

Cars scrapped, last 12 months

35,648

+43% vs a year earlier

More scrapping usually means more COEs in later quarters

Bids per COE, last 3 months

1.31

vs 1.53 usually (-14%)

Quieter than usual: less pressure on prices

Shown for the category picked on the chart above. Scrapping feeds COE supply, but LTA spreads it over later quarters, so a jump in scrapping doesn't show up in the quota straight away. Source: LTA quota announcement.